Author: Greg Michalowski
3

Hawks were easily outnumbered though: Source

There is a story on the wires saying that a minority of ECB rate setters wanted to signal guidance may change if inflation keeps accelerating.  However, those hawks were easily outnumbered.

This is from two sources close to the matter.

The source goes on to say:
"while the debate was not heated, policy hawks were angling for some concessions in the policy message to acknowledge the better economic outlook, but they won none"

Their suggestions included dropping a pledge to continue to buy bonds until inflation converges to the ECB's target of almost 2% or the option to increase purchases if the outlook worsen.  

I guess if the ECB does not want to give the hawks their say, there are other ways to let their voices heard.  

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Author: Greg Michalowski

Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate back above 3%. Rises to 3.3% for 4Q growth.

Up from 2.9% on the last reading. In their own words: The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2017 is  on December 14, up from 2.9 percent on December 8. The forecast of fourth-quarter real consumer spending growth increased from 2.5 percent to 3.2 percent after yesterday's Consumer Price Index report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and this morning's retail sales release from the U.S. Census Bureau.

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Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate back above 3%. Rises to 3.3% for 4Q growth.


Author: Greg Michalowski
Category: Central Banks
0


Up from 2.9% on the last reading. In their own words: The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2017 is  on December 14, up from 2.9 percent on December 8. The forecast of fourth-quarter real consumer spending growth increased from 2.5 percent to 3.2 percent after yesterday's Consumer Price Index report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and this morning's retail sales release from the U.S. Census Bureau.

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Trading ideas for the European session
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Author: Adam Button

IMF: Fed's future moves in policy rates should be gradual

IMF comments at the regular press briefing - Too early to predict economic impact of US tax cuts - Fed on right track, supports recent decisions As if anyone at the Fed cares what the IMF thinks.

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IMF: Fed's future moves in policy rates should be gradual


Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
0
IMF comments at the regular press briefing - Too early to predict economic impact of US tax cuts - Fed on right track, supports recent decisions As if anyone at the Fed cares what the IMF thinks.

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Author: Adam Button
5

Draghi Q&A: The output gap will close in 2018

Draghi continues to answer questions - The design of the QE program was not discussed today - The economic recovery is more advanced in the US than in Europe, especially relating to wages The euro is at the lows of the day, which is surely what Draghi was hoping for.

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Draghi Q&A: The output gap will close in 2018


Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
5
Draghi continues to answer questions - The design of the QE program was not discussed today - The economic recovery is more advanced in the US than in Europe, especially relating to wages The euro is at the lows of the day, which is surely what Draghi was hoping for.

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Author: Adam Button

Draghi Q&A: We're increasingly confident on inflation path

Draghi answers questions from reporters - Forecast revisions go 'in the right direction' - Corporate bond purchases were not discussed. They're a more remote possibility now than 6 months ago Draghi hasn't given any kind of hint about stronger inflation. The euro hit the highs of the day on higher growth forecasts but has spilled down to 1.1824 from 1.1860 because he hasn't followed that up with a signal on higher inflation, aside from 'more confidence'.

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Draghi Q&A: We're increasingly confident on inflation path


Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
0
Draghi answers questions from reporters - Forecast revisions go 'in the right direction' - Corporate bond purchases were not discussed. They're a more remote possibility now than 6 months ago Draghi hasn't given any kind of hint about stronger inflation. The euro hit the highs of the day on higher growth forecasts but has spilled down to 1.1824 from 1.1860 because he hasn't followed that up with a signal on higher inflation, aside from 'more confidence'.

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Author: Adam Button
1

ECB forecasts: Sees 2018 growth at 2.3% vs 1.8% prior

Highlights of the ECB economic forecasts - 2017 seen at 2.4% vs 2.2% prior - 2019 seen at 1.9% vs 1.7% - 2020 growth seen at 1.7% Those are some fairly big upgrades and the euro likes them. Highs of the day at 1.1860 in EUR/USD. On that note, Draghi said a downside risk was foreign exchange movements.

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ECB forecasts: Sees 2018 growth at 2.3% vs 1.8% prior


Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
1
Highlights of the ECB economic forecasts - 2017 seen at 2.4% vs 2.2% prior - 2019 seen at 1.9% vs 1.7% - 2020 growth seen at 1.7% Those are some fairly big upgrades and the euro likes them. Highs of the day at 1.1860 in EUR/USD. On that note, Draghi said a downside risk was foreign exchange movements.

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Author: Adam Button

Draghi opening statement: New forecasts signal strong pace of economic growth

Draghi comments after the ECB decision to leave rates unchanged - Very favourable financial conditions still needed - Domestic price pressures remain muted and have yet to show signs of a convincing upward trend QE guidance was unchanged. One notable change was that there is a "significant reduction in economic slack" that's a change from "gradual reduction" in October.

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Draghi opening statement: New forecasts signal strong pace of economic growth


Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
0
Draghi comments after the ECB decision to leave rates unchanged - Very favourable financial conditions still needed - Domestic price pressures remain muted and have yet to show signs of a convincing upward trend QE guidance was unchanged. One notable change was that there is a "significant reduction in economic slack" that's a change from "gradual reduction" in October.

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Author: Justin Low
9

ECB leaves key interest rates, QE on hold

European Central Bank rate decision - 14 Dec 2017 As expected, all unchanged. Here are the headlines: Nothing substantial from the ECB statement. EUR/USD slightly lower on the decision by about 10 pips to 1.1826 now.

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ECB leaves key interest rates, QE on hold


Author: Justin Low
Category: Central Banks
9
European Central Bank rate decision - 14 Dec 2017 As expected, all unchanged. Here are the headlines: Nothing substantial from the ECB statement. EUR/USD slightly lower on the decision by about 10 pips to 1.1826 now.

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Author: Justin Low
5

BOE leaves rates unchanged at 0.50%

Latest decision by the Bank of England - 14 Dec 2017 All as expected, headlines: GBP/USD dropping a little, about 25 pips or so. Nothing new, the limited and gradual comments echo those in November.

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BOE leaves rates unchanged at 0.50%


Author: Justin Low
Category: Central Banks
5
Latest decision by the Bank of England - 14 Dec 2017 All as expected, headlines: GBP/USD dropping a little, about 25 pips or so. Nothing new, the limited and gradual comments echo those in November.

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan

Ex-PBOC economists says monetary policy should move toward tightening bias

And the OMO rate hike is warning to speculators In reference to this earlier: The hikes wee tiny .... so a very gentle 'warning' only

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Ex-PBOC economists says monetary policy should move toward tightening bias


Author: Eamonn Sheridan
Category: Central Banks
0
And the OMO rate hike is warning to speculators In reference to this earlier: The hikes wee tiny .... so a very gentle 'warning' only

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan

Previews of today's European Central Bank meeting

Earlier on I popped up two ECB previews here at this post: ECB meet today - preview. And the BoE too - preview. More now, these previews via: Deutsche Bank:

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Previews of today's European Central Bank meeting


Author: Eamonn Sheridan
Category: Central Banks
0
Earlier on I popped up two ECB previews here at this post: ECB meet today - preview. And the BoE too - preview. More now, these previews via: Deutsche Bank:

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan

Previews of today's Bank of England meeting

I posted two previews up for the BoE already, you can find them here: More now, these via: Rabobank: RBC:

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Previews of today's Bank of England meeting


Author: Eamonn Sheridan
Category: Central Banks
0
I posted two previews up for the BoE already, you can find them here: More now, these via: Rabobank: RBC:

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan

"PBOC Raises Market Borrowing Costs in Surprise Move After Fed"

Earlier headline is here on the People's Bank of China nudging rates a little higher today: Bloomberg now with a bit more etc if you are interested: Full piece is here

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"PBOC Raises Market Borrowing Costs in Surprise Move After Fed"


Author: Eamonn Sheridan
Category: Central Banks
0
Earlier headline is here on the People's Bank of China nudging rates a little higher today: Bloomberg now with a bit more etc if you are interested: Full piece is here

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan

ECB meet today - preview. And the BoE too - preview.

European Central Bank and Bank of England meetings today  preview via: European Central Bank Barclays: HSBC: preview via the same two ... Barclays:

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ECB meet today - preview. And the BoE too - preview.


Author: Eamonn Sheridan
Category: Central Banks
0
European Central Bank and Bank of England meetings today  preview via: European Central Bank Barclays: HSBC: preview via the same two ... Barclays:

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan

China injects funds through MLFs, raises MLF & RR rates

PBOC says its raised rates, but by less than the market expected - China raises 7-day reverse repo rate by 5 basis points to 2.50 percent - Raises one-year MLF interest rate by 5 basis points to 3.25 percent

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China injects funds through MLFs, raises MLF & RR rates


Author: Eamonn Sheridan
Category: Central Banks
0
PBOC says its raised rates, but by less than the market expected - China raises 7-day reverse repo rate by 5 basis points to 2.50 percent - Raises one-year MLF interest rate by 5 basis points to 3.25 percent

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan

PBOC sets USD/CNY central rate at 6.6033 (vs. yesterday at 6.6251)

People's Bank of China onshore yuan rate against the USD For OMOs:After accounting for the RRs that will mature today it's a net drain of 190bn yuan

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PBOC sets USD/CNY central rate at 6.6033 (vs. yesterday at 6.6251)


Author: Eamonn Sheridan
Category: Central Banks
0
People's Bank of China onshore yuan rate against the USD For OMOs:After accounting for the RRs that will mature today it's a net drain of 190bn yuan

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan
2

US Primary Dealers' outlook for the FOMC into 2018, and what Powell will do

Reuters with their poll of the dealers and what they looking for from the Federal Open Market Committee next year In summary: - Most US primary dealers see fed lifting rates again in both March & June

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US Primary Dealers' outlook for the FOMC into 2018, and what Powell will do


Author: Eamonn Sheridan
Category: Central Banks
2
Reuters with their poll of the dealers and what they looking for from the Federal Open Market Committee next year In summary: - Most US primary dealers see fed lifting rates again in both March & June

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan

Swiss National Bank meet today (focus on the CHF) - preview

The SNB announcement is due at 0830 GMT Commerzbank with a preview (bolding mine):  The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is likely to feel quite relaxed at its rate meeting tomorrow.

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Swiss National Bank meet today (focus on the CHF) - preview


Author: Eamonn Sheridan
Category: Central Banks
0
The SNB announcement is due at 0830 GMT Commerzbank with a preview (bolding mine):  The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is likely to feel quite relaxed at its rate meeting tomorrow.

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan
1

Federal Reserve's Brainard: Many people sidelined from job mkt are back at work

Lael Brainard is a member of the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors Pointing out a welcome development indeed: - Many people sidelined from the job market in the US are back at work And:

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Federal Reserve's Brainard: Many people sidelined from job mkt are back at work


Author: Eamonn Sheridan
Category: Central Banks
1
Lael Brainard is a member of the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors Pointing out a welcome development indeed: - Many people sidelined from the job market in the US are back at work And:

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Author: Adam Button
7

US 10-year yields fail at 2.40% again

The bond market just won't break US 10-year yields are down 4.6 bps in the aftermath of the FOMC decision and press conference. The market wanted some kind of hint at a faster pace of rate hikes or genuine enthusiasm for the economy. Instead, Yellen promised the status quo.

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US 10-year yields fail at 2.40% again


Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
7
The bond market just won't break US 10-year yields are down 4.6 bps in the aftermath of the FOMC decision and press conference. The market wanted some kind of hint at a faster pace of rate hikes or genuine enthusiasm for the economy. Instead, Yellen promised the status quo.

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Author: Adam Button
2

Yellen: We seem to be on a path of inflation moving up

Yellen on inflation We seem to be on a different path. - Transitory factors are holding inflation down - Before this year it was understandable why inflation missed target

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Yellen: We seem to be on a path of inflation moving up


Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
2
Yellen on inflation We seem to be on a different path. - Transitory factors are holding inflation down - Before this year it was understandable why inflation missed target

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Author: Adam Button
9

Federal Reserve Chair: Bitcoin is a highly speculative asset

Yellen on crypto currencies Yellen says Bitcoin is not a stable source of value and it's not legal tender. She also touched on tax evasion and money laundering concerns, but noted that wasn't the Federal Reserve's responsibility.

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Federal Reserve Chair: Bitcoin is a highly speculative asset


Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
9
Yellen on crypto currencies Yellen says Bitcoin is not a stable source of value and it's not legal tender. She also touched on tax evasion and money laundering concerns, but noted that wasn't the Federal Reserve's responsibility.

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Author: Adam Button
9

Yellen Q&A: Most FOMC members factored in tax bill stimulus

Yellen comments to reporters - Some of the FOMC members have been factoring in tax bill stimulus for some time, so changes in forecasts don't reflect an assessment of tax bill

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Yellen Q&A: Most FOMC members factored in tax bill stimulus


Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
9
Yellen comments to reporters - Some of the FOMC members have been factoring in tax bill stimulus for some time, so changes in forecasts don't reflect an assessment of tax bill

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Author: Adam Button

Yellen opening statement: Changes in tax policy will likely provide some growth, the magnitude and timing is uncertain

Highlights of the opening statement from Fed Chair Janet Yellen - Changes in tax policy will likely provide some lift in growth, the magnitude and timing is uncertain From the presentation:

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Yellen opening statement: Changes in tax policy will likely provide some growth, the magnitude and timing is uncertain


Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
0
Highlights of the opening statement from Fed Chair Janet Yellen - Changes in tax policy will likely provide some lift in growth, the magnitude and timing is uncertain From the presentation:

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Author: Adam Button
21

Watch live: Janet Yellen's final FOMC press conference

Yellen delivers a statement and takes questions from the media The press conference usually gets underway at 3:30 pm ET. Watch it live here:

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Watch live: Janet Yellen's final FOMC press conference


Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
21
Yellen delivers a statement and takes questions from the media The press conference usually gets underway at 3:30 pm ET. Watch it live here:

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