Author: Eamonn Sheridan
5

The major economic data releases and Fed appearances

8.30am NY time 1330GMT
Initial weekly unemployment claims (week ended February 18)
  • expected 240K, prior 239K
Continuing claims also
  • expected 2068K, prior 2076K
And also at 8.30am NY time 1330GMT Chicago Fed National Activity Index (January)

8.35am NY time 1335GMT
Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Dennis Lockhart speaking
Lockhart is retiring soon after 10 years, this speech is his 'Looking back on 10 years at the Federal Reserve Atlanta'

9am NY time 1400GMT FHFA House Price Index
11am NY time 1600GMT Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11am NY time 1600GMT EIA oil inventories

1pm NY time 1800GMT
Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan speaking with the Tarrant County Bankers Association in Fort Worth, Texas
  • There will be both and audience and media Q&A

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan

BOJ's Kiuchi: Shouldn't persist in strengthening monetary easing

Kiuchi is a dissenter, so comments not surprising from him - Must make 2 pct inflation medium- to long-term target - Shouldn't persist in strengthening monetary easing, instead ensure real long-term rates remain low stably 

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Author: Adam Button
3

BOE's Shafik finishes her BOE term with a rant about experts

In her final speech, the BOE's Shafik defended the role of experts "The question is not how to manage without experts, but how to ensure that there are mechanisms in place to ensure they are trustworthy," Shafik said. "Getting this right is vital for determining whether our futures are shaped by ignorance and narrow-mindedness, or by knowledge and informed debate."

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Author: Adam Button
13

Here is the key passage in the FOMC Minutes

Hike fairly soon if data matches forecasts: In discussing the outlook for monetary policy over the period ahead, many participants expressed the view that it might be appropriate to raise the federal funds rate again fairly soon if incoming information on the labor market and inflation was in line with or stronger than their current expectations or if the risks of overshooting the Committee's maximum-employment and inflation objectives increased. A few participants noted that continuing to remove policy accommodation in a timely manner, potentially at an upcoming meeting, would allow the Committee greater flexibility in responding to subsequent changes in economic conditions. Several judged that the risk of a sizable undershooting of the longer-run normal unemployment rate was high, particularly if economic growth was faster than currently expected. If that situation developed, the Committee might need to raise the federal funds rate more quickly than most participants currently anticipated to limit the buildup of inflationary pressures. However, with inflation still short of the Committee's objective and inflation expectations remaining low, a few others continued to see downside risks to inflation or anticipated only a gradual return of inflation to the 2 percent objective as the labor market strengthened further.

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Author: Adam Button
5

FOMC Minutes: Officials saw hike 'fairly soon' if economy on track

FOMC Minutes from the February 1 meeting - Many Fed voters saw only a modest risk of significant inflation - Many participants thought a rate increase might be appropriate 'fairly soon' "Measures of consumer and business sentiment have improved of late," was the highlight of the statement at the time.

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Author: Adam Button
2

The real risk in the FOMC Minutes is always the same

Chances are, it's a dud The real risk in the FOMC Minutes is always the same: That we learn nothing. It happens time and time again. It's more likely for the headlines to misinterpret the Fed than for anything meaningful to be in the report.

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Author: Adam Button

ECB's Hansson: We need more months with positive inflation surprises

Press interview with the ECB's Hansson - Rising inflation is 'good news' He isn't saying much here but the baseline view at the ECB is that the rise in inflation is almost entirely due to temporary factors. Draghi is very skeptical. But that doesn't mean that Hansson can't be hopeful.

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Author: Adam Button
1

Fed's Powell: Rate hike path based on economy roughly meeting forecast

Fed's Powell on the economic outlook in New York - Expects gradual rate hikes - Risks to policy outlook now 'more in balance' after period of Fed patience - Expects stable economic growth, inflation up to 2% target over next couple years There's no clarity here, or even any hints, on whether a hike is coming next month or some time in the future.

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Author: Adam Button
2

10 banks weigh in ahead of today's FOMC Minutes

10 quick previews of the FOMC Minutes For bank trade ideas, . Today's focus will be on the release of Fed minutes. Remember the statement from the 1 Feb meeting suggested inflation 'will reach 2%' but fell short of bringing rate expectations forward, thus pushing US real rates lower allowing the USD to fall towards its cyclical low points within the following week. Overnight, the Fed's Mester (non-voter) suggested the Fed has no interest in 'surprising' markets. While this statement might be read by many to mean that Fed may not opt for higher rates in March, it could also be read as the Fed having the potential intention to reprice front end rate expectations to provide the Fed with full flexibility to decide on rates whenever it wants to. The likelihood of the Fed minutes providing USD support maybe higher than the opposite outcome.

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Author: Adam Button
2

Is the Fed hike view conditional on good data, or not getting bad data?

FOMC Minutes coming up at 2 pm ET The market is going to tread a fine line into the March 15 FOMC decision and today's Minutes will be a great opportunity to recalibrate what's expected. The market is currently pricing in a 36% chance of a hike.

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Author: Adam Button

Latest BOC survey sees earlier hike

Reuters poll of BOC watchers The latest poll sees the first Bank of Canada rate hike in Q2 of 2018 compared to Q3 of 2018 in the January survey. That might not be as meaningful as it sounds. Forecasts have bounced around between Q1, Q2 and Q3 of 2018 for the past five months.

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Author: Mike Paterson
10

Yen demand still in vogue as USDJPY tests 113.00 again

It's risk-off sentiment time again as yen demand prevails 22 Feb Early failure by USDJPY to hold above 113.50 has helped trigger falls in yen pairs along with GBP and EUR weakness to help along the way.

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Author: Mike Paterson

BOJ to consider adding specific dates when it announces JGB buying operations

Reuters citing Bank of Japan sources 22 Feb No further detail at present. Will update here if/when any more is revealed. Currently at the end of each month the BOJ announces the details of its forthcoming JGB operations but this has not included the operation dates.

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan

More from BOJ's Kuroda: Ready to ease further if needed

USD/JPY is falling away in Tokyo today,l down 30-odd points Let's see if Kuroda's remarks have any impact ((the yne move seems part of broader USD weakness ... not large ... so maybe not):

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan

Fed's Mester - now for the Bloomberg interview

Welcome to www.MesterLive.com ... well, it sure feels that way! From earlier today: - from earlier (the first link, above) if you want more. The second link there is to her remarks from the Bloomberg interview. the full video interview is up on Bloomberg's page now:

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