The pair finally finds a way to break above the 200-hour MA
And that means near-term sentiment has turned bullish as long as the pair stays above it. The 200-hour MA (blue line) has proven to be a resistance level the pair cannot break above from last week until we had the breakthrough earlier.
The break felt good for the bulls but there is a concern for the bulls
There was positive news out of the EU/UK Brexit transition talks. That news, coupled with a technical break of a trend line on the 4-hour chart below at 1.3976 (see blue numbered circles), and a move above the 1.4000 area ceiling (see green circles), led to a good run higher. The bulls took control.
Can the broken trend line hold.
The USDJPY has had a down and up session today. The run lower earlier in the session, stalled ahead of the low from Friday, moved back above a broken trend line (see green circles), a topside trend line at 106.05 currently (see red circles), and the 100 hour MA (blue line) at 106.19. All that is bullish.
Back in the middle of the range after swing area holds
The EURUSD technicals have pivoted back to the upside today.
The sources report of an ECB pivot has helped the climb recently (). Before that run up, there were some other signs.
USD is mostly higher vs the major currencies
The GBP is the strongest currency of the day on increased . The JPY is the weakest. The USD is mixed with a large decline vs the GBP (-0.86%). It is lower vs the CAD and EUR as well. The greenback is higher vs the JPY by +0.21%, and near unchanged levels vs the rest of the pairs.
The pair is trading near 1-year lows, at levels last seen in April last year
The yen continues to gain as the Nikkei slides on the back of more political tensions in Japan, with Japanese prime minister Abe having seen his approval ratings take a hit over the weekend.
This one looks to be all about technicals
I've scoured the world for any kind of fundamental reason for the quick $1 move in crude oil in the last 30 minutes but if there's something out there, I can't find it. It's up to $62.33 from $61.34 a short time ago.
The fall continues as the London/European trading day progressed toward the last few hours of trading
The GBPUSD continues it's fall and tests the cluster of support defined by 200 hour MA, 100 bar MA on 4 hour, trend line and 50% retracement. They all come in between 1.38868 and 1.3902.
Yesterday's breaking of 100 week MA and 1.3000 was a key break
The USDCAD has continued what was the start of another leg higher yesterday.
If you recall (), the USDCAD moved first above the 100 week MA at 1.2976 area and then cracked the 1.3000 level. That was a double top from earlier in March. The price pushed higher on the breaks, and that momentum has continued today.
String of good data pushes the dollar higher
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment joined the JOLTS,Industrial production and capacity utilization on the "better than expected" side of the equation today. Yields are higher with the 10 and 30 year yield up about 2.0 basis points.
Price trending lower.
The USDJPY has been trending lower for the day.
Looking at the 5 minute chart above, the price had a momentum move lower in the Asian Pacific session. The price fell below the 100 bar MA and has stayed below.
The USD is mixed today
The JPY is the strongest currency of the day, while the NZD is the weakest. The USD is mixed at the start of the North American sessions with gains vs. the commodity currencies, and declines vs the rest.
The NZD is the weakest performing major currency on the day
There isn't much news on the day but commodity currencies in general are under a bit of pressure - the kiwi in particular. There was the manufacturing PMI earlier in the day, but it's not exactly something that causes a major selloff in the currency despite the dip in the data.