Pair has been consolidating at 2017 highs over the last few months
The EURJPY has moved below the 100 bar MA and 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at the 132.908 and the 132.66 levels respectively. It also cracked below an upward sloping trend line at the 132.91 area. The combination has sent the pair lower. Risk is now at those level with the 132.66 the best case for the sellers/bears.
ECBs Draghi will start press conference at 8:30 AM ET/ 1330 GMT
The ECB decision has led to a fairly limited response so far saying they expect to keep rates unchanged for an extended period of time. The EURUSD has had a high of 1.1830 and a low of 1.18247. That is not a heck of a lot of movement.
AUDUSD moves back to the 50% midpoint of the move up from Dec 2016 low
The dollar is getting hurt on the back of the Fed's inflation concerns and in the process the AUDUSD - which was already rising today - has moved even higher.
Falls below 38.2 and trend line.
The USDJPY has also been hit over the last few minutes. The price moved below the 38.2% at 112.634 (close risk now) and also peaked below a lower trend line at 112.50. Stay below the 112.634 on the rebound will make holding the trend line more difficult now. Sellers are trying to make the next push with the 112.29 the 50% of the move up, as the next downside target on continued weakness.
100 day MA, 200 hour MA and 38.2% retracement at 1.1800 area
The price is moving above the level as I type and trades at 1.1810.
The 1.18287 is the next target. That equals the 50% of the move down (see chart above).
Key area tested
The dollar sell off after the FOMC statement, took the price up to and briefly above, the underside of the broken trend line at 1.33816 and the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.33764. The high price reached 1.3385. The price is currently trading at 1.3368 area.
USDJPY falls to 38.2% target. EURUSD rises toward cluster of resistance....stalls
The EURUSD is rallying toward the key cluster of resistance defined by the 100 day MA, 38.2% and 200 hour MA at the 1.1800-02 area. The high has reached 1.1795 so far. Key resistance.
100 hour and trend line tested
As London/European traders head for the exits, there is a lowering of the dollar a bit.
The EURUSD has wandered back toward the highs for the day and in the process is testing the 100 hour MA at 1.17646 and topside trend line. The combination stalled the rally early in the session and the price fell from 1.1770 to 1.1746. Now both are a little lower at the 1.1768 level. We currently trade at 1.1766.
Cracks the November high at 0.6979
The NZDUSD has cracked the November high at 0.6979 and now trades at the highest level since October 24th.
Looking at the 4-hour chart below, (see blue and green lines in the chart above). The market cheered the announcement of Adrian Orr being named the new governor of the RBNZ.
Floor at $16,298. Ceiling at $17,578.
The price of bitcoin is waffling back and forth as the consolidation at record high levels continues.
Looking at the 5 minute chart above, there is a high ceiling at $17,578 (see red numbered circles), and a lower floor at the $16.296 level (see green numbered circles).
Bullish/Bearish barometer for the GBPUSD
The CPI has come and gone. It was a bit weaker than expectations and the dollar has fallen but is respecting technical levels in both the EURUSD and the USDJPY ().
USDJPY falls to 200 hour MA and finds buyers. Can the level be broken? EURUSD tests 100 hour MA
The USDJPY moved lower on the CPI data but stalled ahead of the 200 hour MA on the first look (green line). The fall took the price below the low floor at the 113.08-11. Stay below that is more bearish now. A break of the 200 hour MA will target 112.864. That was also the high from December 5th. A move below that opens the downside for further declines.
December 13, 2017
As North American traders enter for the day, the GBP is the strongest, while the CHF is the weakest. However, the major pairs are clustered close together on a relative basis. So the "league table" can be shuffled around in the NY session. The USD is more lower (modestly) with declines vs the GBP, JPY, NZD, AUD, and CAD. The greenback is a little higher vs the EUR and CHF.
1.1712--24 area attracts buyers
The low today reached 1.1717 - between the two levels - and the price started to rebuild back to the upside.
In an earlier post, I spoke of the support from a number of swing lows centered in the 1.1712-24 area.
50% and 200 day MA lie ahead
On the daily chart, the USDCAD has closed above the 100 day MA since October 24th. That is 36 straight trading days.
Today we traded up to 1.28916 (so far) - short of all those levels (1.2901-16). That area could slow a rally just because they did it before.
Below low from last week
The GBPUSD has had an up and down day. The up came after inflation data showed that CPI rose by 3.1% - above the upper limit of 3.0%. The move higher took the price above the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart and back above a broken trend line. Those breaks failed, however, and the price rotated back to the downside.