100 hour and trend line tested

As London/European traders head for the exits, there is a lowering of the dollar a bit.

The EURUSD has wandered back toward the highs for the day and in the process is testing the 100 hour MA at 1.17646 and topside trend line. The combination stalled the rally early in the session and the price fell from 1.1770 to 1.1746. Now both are a little lower at the 1.1768 level. We currently trade at 1.1766.

The FOMC could swing the bias either way depending on if they are more hawkish or less hawkish. The Fed estimated they would tighten 3 times in 2019 on the last dot plot. Dissenters will also be eyed.

If more hawkish:

  • Look for a return toward the low from yesterday. That low stalled at the 1.1717 level. That was in between swing levels going back to September (see red number circles in the chart below) A move below that opens the door for further declines.

If less hawkish/more dovish:

  • Look for a move toward the 100 day MA and the 38.2% of the move down from the end of November high at 1.1800 area. A move above would open that door for further upside.

Right now, we are in between those levels and testing its own key levels right now.