Some previews of the economic calendar data due from the US today
Retail Sales for August
Barclays:
- We forecast retail sales to have increased 0.2% m/m in August.
- Manufacturers' reports suggest vehicle sales fell in August and led us to look for a small fall at the retail level, while gasoline prices indicate a boost to overall sales from gas station sales.
- For sales excluding motor vehicles we forecasts a strong 0.7% rise.
- Excluding volatile items such as autos, gasoline stations, food services and building materials, we expect retail sales to be up 0.6% m/m.
HSBC:
- The nominal value of retail auto sales has held up relatively well this year, even as the unit volume of new auto sales has declined. This has partly been due to a change in the mix of units sold, with sales of larger, more expensive vehicles outperforming sales of smaller vehicles. This phenomenon may have come to a halt in August, with auto manufacturers reporting a sizeable decline in light truck sales.
- We estimate retail sales were unchanged m-o-m in August, held back by weaker auto sales. We expect that ex-auto sales rose 0.5%, largely reflecting an increase in gasoline prices. We look for a 0.2% increase in "control group" sales.
US Industrial Production, August
Barclays:
- We look for industrial production to increase by 0.1% m/m in August, a touch softer than the July print. We expect manufacturing production to increase by a modest 0.1% m/m.
- We expect mining production to continue at a steady pace, and expect utilities production to decline on the month.
HSBC:
- The industrial production data could be volatile over the next several months. Late in August, Hurricane Harvey created broad disruptions to economic activity along the Gulf Coast.
- Refining activity and petrochemical production in the region were heavily disrupted.
- At the national level, however, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that hours worked increased solidly in August across many manufacturing industries.
- We expect that August industrial production was unchanged m-o-m.
(Bolding above is mine)
Also due today is University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (flash, September)
