The Australian jobs numbers can be a bit of a lottery and the Australian Bureau of Statistics has come in for a lot of criticism in the past.

Nevertheless, we all line up each month to get the results and it moves markets. For today:

  • Employment Change: expected +15.0K, prior +42.0K
  • Unemployment Rate: expected 5.6%, prior 5.5%
  • Full Time Employment Change, prior +52.1K
  • Part Time Employment Change, prior -10.0K
  • Participation Rate, expected is 64.9%, prior 64.9%

Earlier preview post: Before the BOJ we'll get the Australian jobs report - preview

More now .... this via Westpac. The bank has its own proprietary indicator for the labour market in Australia, WPAC notes the official data now lining up closer to their own indicator::

  • The Australian labour market went through a soft patch in 2016, particularly from August to November, but as we moved through 2017 there has been a distinct uplift in employment.
  • In the last three months the annual pace lifted from 0.9%yr in February to 2.0%yr in May. Compare this to the 106k gain, or 0.9%yr, in the year to February.
  • In May the 42k gain in employment resulted in a 141.1k gain over the last three months or an average of 47k per month.
  • Westpac's Jobs Index currently suggests employment growth should be around 2.0%yr before accelerating to 2 and a 1⁄2%yr by November. Our forecast for a 20k gain in June holds the annual rate at 2.0%yr.
  • The solid May gain in total employment was associated with a 0.1ppt lift in participation, to 64.9, driving a 23.4k gain in the labour force. This rise in the labour force limited the fall in the unemployment rate to 5.5% from 5.6% - at two decimal places the unemployment rate was 5.53%. We had been looking for the unemployment rate to fall over the next few months but we had not expected it to get to 5.5% so soon.

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The AUD has been on a tear the last few weeks and especially the last few days. A poor result on today's report could shake a few longs out but I expect the currency will be bid on dips.

A good result should help solidify the gains and keep it bubbling along.