Coming up at 0930 GMT from the UK today - January Retail Sales
Much of the movement in ... well, pretty much everything, is coming from the USD
And, for GBP ... politics, both internal (party bickering) and external (EUUUUUUUUUU)
But, FWIW, some previews of the data
This via Société Générale
- The very high volatility of retail sales tends often leads one to expect big falls to be followed by big bounces. However, the data for January are likely to show only the most anaemic of rebounds after a fall of 1.6% mom in December.
- The problem UK retailers have faced in recent years is how to maintain consumer interest after the heavy discounts now offered in November in the Black Friday sales promotions. We view this development as essentially cannibalistic, robbing sales in December and January and this season that seems to have been the case.
- We predict an increase of only 0.2% mom in January.
Barclays:
- We expect retail sales to contract by -0.6% m/m in January and print 1.4% y/y. GfK consumer confidence rebounded marginally despite remaining in negative territory. The annual growth of Barclays credit card data was in line with December, Retail price inflation is expected to decelerate mildly.
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