From a research note on 16 February 2018
The note by analysts, including Francesco Garzarelli, showed that Goldman Sachs have raised their benchmark 10-year government bond yield forecasts for the US, Germany and the UK.
Here are the highlights:
- US yields now seen at 3.25% by year-end, previous forecast 3%
- German bund yields to rise to 1%, previous forecast 0.8%
- UK gilts seen at 2%, previous forecast 1.8%
- Peak level for US yields still seen in 3.5% - 3.75% area
- Bond valuations are "still fairly stretched"
They also add that US 10-year yields sitting at 3.7% would be "fair value" at year-end using their economic forecasts, while also noting that diminishing "subsidy" from central bank stimulus will send term premiums higher.
10-year Treasury yields in the US rose to a high of 2.94% last week, but fell on Friday to close the week at 2.87%. US markets are closed for today in observance of Presidents' Day.
