Earlier on I popped up two ECB previews here at this post: ECB meet today - preview. And the BoE too - preview.

More now, these previews via:

Deutsche Bank:

We expect a short press conference

  • After last month's announcements, we expect no new policies to be unveiled.
  • The two topics the market could focus on are the updated staff forecasts and the internal ECB debate on forward guidance.

The ECB will publish updated staff macroeconomic forecasts.

  • The market could be most sensitive to the medium-term 2020 inflation forecasts.
  • Consistent with previous 3-year ahead staff views, we expect the core inflation forecast to be 1.6/1.7%. This is in line with the slow exit path announced on 26 October.
  • There are hints of internal divisions on forward guidance.

Benoît Coeuré is in favour of ending net purchases in September 2018 - contrary to Draghi's claim that a sudden end was unlikely - and wants to break the link between QE and the inflation outlook.

  • The minutes confirmed "several" members support this change.
  • We expect Draghi to stress that a large majority of the Council supported the 26 October policy stance and to play down the imminence of any changes to forward guidance.

We expect the internal policy debate to become livelier next year as the consensus starts to breakdown over questions such as whether the policy stance should be rotating or tightening - Coeuré may be in the former camp rather than the latter - and the relative importance of price stability vs. financial stability - the ECB minutes referred to prudential concerns from low rates for the first time.

  • Changes to forward guidance could be the lens that amplifies the divisions on the Council, adding volatility to policy expectations in 2018.

The next most likely occasion for a revision of the policy stance is June 2018, in our view. Communication has become a monetary policy tool in its own right and forward guidance is seen by the ECB as having successfully contributed to the easing of the policy stance in recent years. There are alternative views. The BIS is worried that policy predictability is undermining the ability to tighten the monetary stance. As the Executive Board changes over the next couple of years, there may be an opportunity for the ECB to rethink not just the content but the role and value of forward guidance.

Morgan Stanley:

The ECB is unlikely to announce any extra measures at this meeting.

The Q&A will possibly range from more details on the net asset purchases, which will be cut in half to €30 billion per month from January, to possible evolutions of the forward guidance next year.

One focus will likely be the new staff projections, which will present 2020 for the first time.

  • The key difference in the external inputs relative to the previous projections is the rise of the oil price, while the assumptions on FX and market rates are unlikely to have changed much.
  • This should boost headline inflation by 20bp to 1.4%Y in 2018 and an extra 10bp to 1.6%Y in 2019, in our view.
  • The 2020 forecast is likely to be at 1.8%Y.
  • Following a couple of downside surprises, mostly related to seasonal and one-off factors, core inflation will likely be revised marginally down for 2017 and stay unchanged in 2018. However, as spare capacity closes faster, we expect a 10bp upward revision to 1.6%Y for 2019 and see 2020 at 1.7%Y.
  • The reason why we expect the ECB to show core inflation trending higher, is that we think that the near-term GDP growth path is likely to be revised up too, given recent upside surprises in the data, to 2.3%Y in 2017 and 2.1%Y in 2018,a 30bp upward revision. We'd expect 2019 at 1.8%Y,a small upgrade, and see 2020 at 1.7%Y. This should close the output gap more rapidly.