HSBC say that "After a wobble at the start of the year, public borrowing has fallen more sharply than expected of late."

  • Indeed, last month's deficit stood at GBP4.9bn, which represents the lowest September borrowing print for a decade.
  • For October, we expect another year-on-year narrowing in the deficit; our forecast is for a PSNBx figure of GBP7.0bn, GBP0.5bn lower than for October last year.
  • In the face of political pressure and the prospect of a growth forecast downgrade from the Office for Budget Responsibility, these recent numbers offer some respite for the Chancellor as he prepares for the 22 November Budget.